I’m so happy it’s finally time.
IndyCar is poised to have one of the best seasons in several years, and that all opens this weekend in St. Petersburg. St. Pete and Tampa hold an extraordinary place in my heart, and it is often one of the year's best races. This year is likely no exception, and I wanted to make some early predictions, look through the field to figure out who’s who, and make some wild takes on how I think things play out for the year.
This was written before the weekend started, but I could not get this out ahead of Friday.
Juncos Hollinger
The pair of Augustin Canapino and Romain Grosjean certainly are an exciting duo.
Romain has not had an easy go since coming over from Formula 1. His season with Dayle Coyne in 2021 was by far his best and the most competitive he’s been. His stint with Andretti was less than ideal, and while some of the issues were self-inflicted injuries, Andretti had done him no favors. That relationship turned sour and in quite a public fashion.
I suspect that the move to a minor team will help him with consistency and likely allow his talent to show up more regularly, but I’m not sure it will be enough to gain his first win in the series. He will likely be the clear No. 1 driver on the team, which will probably benefit him. He seems to perform better with a much smaller, more intimate team.
My feeling is that his 2024 Campaign is one of mid-field results.
Season Predicted Finish: 15th
Augustin Canapino certainly had flashes of success in his rookie year; with four top-15 finishes, he could occasionally hang with the top end of the field. I hope that in his Sophomore season, he can get further up the grid and finish more in the top 10, but it’s hard to say how well things will go. Juncos added some engineering talent in the offseason, which will probably help.
With Juncos's significant hands-on effort, we could see some magic. Just don’t count on it.
Season Predicted Finish: 21th
Meyer Shank Racing
Tom Blomqvist will join the IndyCar paddock full-time in 2024 after having one unsuccessful go at Mid-Ohio last year in place of the still-recovering Simon Pagenaud following his massive crash. The Briton has shown exceptional speed and consistency in IMSA driving the ARX-06, capturing multiple victories alongside another 2024 season rookie, Colin Braun.
Tom is one of my dark horse contenders to sneak one or two wins through the season.
I expect he could win at Long Beach and Road America. He has previously shown well at both of those circuits, though I suspect strategy will determine his success. MSR has all of the resources needed after pausing its IMSA program. His previous circuit knowledge will prove to cut down on the learning period. He has all the speed and talent necessary.
Season Predicted Finish: 16th
Felix Rosenqvist moved to MSR from McLaren, where he consistently challenged the grid's top end, collecting two pole positions, two podiums, and a top-12 finish in the points. Felix has quickly become a season-long favorite of mine to be one of the scrappier entries. As another entry where the engineering skill of MSR will come into play, and having a familiar teammate, I expect the pair of MSR drivers to be a problem up and down the grid all season.
Season Predicted Finish: 10th
A.J Foyt Racing
Santino Ferrucci returns this year; he has the pace to be competitive in many races. With another full-season ride and all of the knowledge he has picked up over the 2023 campaign, I suspect Santino may be running well through the bulk of the season. He was a consistent midfielder last year, finishing 19th in the points. A competitive run at the Indy 500 saw a third-place finish, his only podium, and the superior top-10 finish. He should be able to challenge the top of the mid-fielders and probably net a few more top-10 results.
Season Predicted Finish: 14th
Sting Ray Robb is also back following an underwhelming rookie season. He had numerous DNFs, one of which was a wild ride at the season opener in St. Pete.
Outside of his money being as green as everyone else’s, I cannot find a reason for him to be back. There are other drivers I’d rather see take that role over, but just like Lance Stroll in F1, money talks. His sponsorship has also been a bit of a hot-button issue. Religious sponsorships and advertising are leaking into mainstream sports, and as we saw with the Superbowl, it has had quite an adverse reaction. I have no problem with religion, but I do have a problem with it being force-fed into our lives everywhere, especially as this is now taking on political connotations in an election year. It brings a negative light into the sport, and no different than the rejection of other questionable content and sponsors in the 80s and 90s, along with grid girls in the last decade, it would be great to get away from this. I’m old enough to remember when Scientology sponsored Roberto Guererro in the 1988 Indy 500, where he ran with Granatelli Motorsports. Unsuccessfully, I might add. To steal a line from the FOM’s ruling from the Andretti denial in F1, I don’t see this as a value-added entry.
I don’t have any expectations for success. Sting Ray is a solid tail-of-the-order driver, and short of a miracle, there is no chance he is even close to a podium or a win this year with such a competitive field.
Season Predicted Finish: 23rd
Ed Carpenter Racing
Rinus VeeKay is another one of my dark horse entries. The Dutchman is entering his fourth year with Ed Carpenter and looks to continue being a strong contender. He finished 2023 with two top-10 finishes and was not far off his second win in Portland; he didn’t have the late-race speed to mount a challenge.
The next step needs to come in 2024; he has the talent, he’s proven to have the speed, runs safe races, is routinely able to stay in the top 15, and regularly lives inside the top 10. He needs to push into the top 5 next. The thing holding him back, in my opinion, is the team. Whether engineering, resources, or strategy, they must find a way to break through. And I expect numerous podiums and wins to come his way once they arrive.
Season Predicted Finish: 11th
Andretti Global
Colton Herta looks to build on his successful 2023 run; for a team that has not had much success over the past few seasons, Herta feels like the guy to toss the monkey off their back and bring Andretti back to the top. He was incredibly close in several contests last year, and this year has to be the breakthrough. Even though the end of the grid where he usually resides sees anyone capable of winning on any weekend, Herta needs to be the clear No. 1 in the Andretti house and not relinquish that this year. His contract takes him out to 2027, and short of an F1 bid being successful, Colton will live in IndyCar for the foreseeable future. He has to stamp his mark now.
Season Predicted Finish: 5th
Kyle Kirkwood is the middle child, and between Herta and Ericsson, it’s easy to see how you don’t pay much attention to the 27 car. But out of all three, he was the most successful in terms of wins and came in 11th in points. Outside of a few one-off wins, I am confident he will repeat a year similar to 2023.
Look for him to win at a street course or a short oval like Milwaukee. I think he moves up a few spots in the season-ending points totals.
Season Predicted Finish: 9th
Marcus Ericsson, much like Colton Herta, really needs to step up and get after it; moving over to Andretti from Ganassi in 2024, he will likely see some growing pains in the first few rounds, but my prediction is that he will end up returning to form by mid-summer. The 2022 Indy 500 winner nearly doubled up last year; I expect him to get revenge on Newgarden this year come May, and that’s when he kicks the season off and starts his push, but the early season woes with a new team will see him come up short.
Season Predicted Finish: 6th
Rahal Letterman Lanigan
I don’t think anyone had a more enormous rollercoaster of a season in 2023 than Graham Rahal. His lowest point statistically was the season closer at Laguna Seca, but mentally, it had to have been the drama surrounding the 500. 2021 has been his best year out of the last 5, and I’m not sure what it will take to get back there. Unfortunately, it feels as if 2024 might be the last ride for Graham in IndyCar. And unless significant success is found, it probably should be. I would prefer him to take his talents across the shop floor to their IMSA program and expand into a GTD Pro entry with BMW. With his continued business adventures with Ducati and a growing family, it makes sense to consider stepping away or reducing a season-long involvement. Eventually, someone has to take on RLL should Bobby decide to pass it on, and Graham should consider this avenue.
He might be able to put together a few close runs, but I expect nothing more than a mid-field performance.
Season I Predicted Finish: 20th.
Pietro Fittipaldi is another former F1 driver seeking renewed glory in the IndyCar paddock; I don’t know much about him. His last win came with Jota Sport in LMP2 the previous year in the 6-hour race at Monza. His last win in a formula car came back in 2017 with Lotus in Formula V8 3.5. There, he managed to accumulate six wins and a championship. I don’t know what to expect, but I don’t think it will be a world-shocking performance.
Season Predicted Finish: 22st
Christian Lundgaard is probably the savior of the team for the RLL squad this year. He snagged a win at Toronto following two near-misses for the Indy road course kicking off the month of May and then again at Mid-Ohio. Nine top-10 finishes found him ending up 8th at the season close. I am confident he can repeat that success and move up to be a thorn in Ganassi and Penske’s sides. I think he can pick up two or three wins. I like Barber, Mid-Ohio, and possibly Road America or similar tracks. He’s shown to be okay on the ovals but hasn’t been able to break through yet.
Season Predicted Finish: 7th
Chip Ganassi
Linus Lundqvist joins the most prominent team on the grid, which has five cars under the tent. He ran three races for MSR last year instead of Pagenaud in the 60. He got one of the top 15 out of those three races and a fast lap, but otherwise, he had unimpressive results.
With CGR behind him, though, I think he will be able to achieve better performance consistently. Another top-of-the-mid-pack driver for 2024 seems about right.
Season Predicted Finish: 18th
Kyffin Simpson is the next rookie with CGR this year. He finished 10th last year in the Indy NXT season, won the Sebring 12 hours with Tower Motorsports, and capped off his 2023 season with multiple other victories in the European Le Mans Series and Asian LeMans Series.
He’s familiar with many of the tracks in IndyCar, which will help him get a leg up on his co-rookie. I think he will be quiet but on the edge of getting loud.
Season Predicted Finish: 19th
Marcus Armstrong comes in full-time this year after spending 2023 as a part-timer with CGR. In 12 races last year, he spent the bulk of his time inside the top 10, and I’d expect no less this year. But the long year sometimes gives him trouble derailing a top-10 points finish.
Season Predicted Finish: 17th
Scott Dixon had a tough time breaking through for wins in 2023, but in standard fashion, he closed solid with three victories in the last four rounds, finishing second to Palou. A perennial favorite, not much else needs to be said. I have a feeling he comes up short again, though, but just barely.
Season Predicted Finish: 3rd
Alex Palou looks to double up this year after an absolute alien-like performance last year. What he was able to do was incredibly impressive and something that I haven’t felt since the days of Zanardi and Montoya. he was connected with his car and the track like I have not seen in a long time.
My feeling? He repeats as the champion and puts his face on the Borg-Warner in May.
Season Predicted Finish: 1st.
Arrow McLaren
Pato O’Ward is another driver you cannot ignore; paired with Alexander Rossi again, McLaren looks to gather more wins and success to challenge the top two teams in CGR and Penske. 2023 was not their best year, but additional work was done in the offseason to improve their engineering efforts. Hopefully, new facilities, technology, and staff will find McLaren at the top.
Pato takes home at least three or four wins and is comfortably in the driver’s seat into the middle of the summer. He’s my Milwaukee favorite so far.
Season Predicted Finish: 4th
Alexander Rossi has always been one of my favorite drivers, even though he hasn’t had much in the way of stand-out performances since his incredible win. He may quietly sneak up on the season at the 100th running of the Indy 500, being further up in the points than we might have thought at the end of last year. With the improvements in the team and a refreshed energy, we should see more out of him.
Season Predicted Finish: 12th
Penske
Right at the top end, we will start with Scott MacLaughlin. His impressive move from V8 Supercars has proved to be a good one year after year. This is the year he starts to be the next in line; he is always one of his favorites. I think he finishes with numerous wins but cannot overcome Palou.
Season Predicted Finish: 2nd
Last year's Indy 500 winner is next; Newgarden is a tough grade for me. He has always been right there, but I’m unsure if he can get to the top and stay there. It feels like there is always something that prevents him from getting over the hump.
Season Predicted Finish: 8th
Will Power is last up. I don’t know what to think about him. 2023 was filled with trouble, some self-inflicted, others out of his control. I’m not sure he ever gets back to the point. Another troubled season is ahead for Power, I’m afraid, and it might be enough that The Captain moves on at the end of the year.
Season Predicted Finish: 13th
I cannot wait to revisit this and see how it all shakes out, what are your thoughts?